Geoeconomic Confrontation Tops Global Risk Rankings
Rising economic clashes between major powers, from sanctions to tariffs, are now considered the greatest threat to world stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. Released ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos next week, the report surveyed more than 1,300 leaders and experts from business, government, academia, and civil society.
The report places geoeconomic confrontation above other pressing risks such as misinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather, and state-based armed conflict. Half of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy world in the next two years, up from 36% last year, while only 9% foresee stability and just 1% anticipate calm conditions. Looking further ahead, a clear majority predict prolonged global instability over the next decade.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning system: “The age of competition compounds global risks — from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt — and changes our collective capacity to address them. But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion.”
Economic and Geopolitical Pressures Rising
Geoeconomic confrontation ranked highest for both likelihood and severity in the short term, with 18% of respondents naming it the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. State-based armed conflict was second for likelihood but fell to fifth place over a two-year horizon.
The report highlights how growing rivalries and prolonged conflicts threaten supply chains, global economic stability, and international cooperation. Recent US trade policies, including tariffs on imports from multiple nations, have disrupted global commerce and strained budgets worldwide, underscoring these concerns.
Economic risks also jumped in the rankings, with potential downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and the risk of asset bubbles all seeing notable increases. Respondents warned that a combination of these financial pressures and geoeconomic tensions could spark new volatility in global markets.
Technology, Society, and Climate in the Long-Term Outlook
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation remain a major concern, ranking second in the near-term risk outlook, while cyber insecurity placed sixth. Worries about artificial intelligence surged in the long-term view, climbing from 30th to fifth, reflecting fears over AI’s impact on jobs, security, and society. Societal polarisation and inequality were also highlighted as major threats, with inequality identified as the most interconnected risk for the second year in a row.
Environmental risks, while dropping slightly in the short-term rankings, dominate the long-term outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems were considered the most severe threats over the next decade, with three-quarters of respondents predicting a turbulent environmental future.
Zahidi emphasized the importance of collaboration, saying, “The challenges highlighted in this report — spanning geopolitical shocks, rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks — underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
