Precious metals have emerged as some of the standout performers in 2025, fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations of looser monetary policy and hopes for global economic stability. Gold prices recently surged to record highs, reaching $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce — a year-on-year rise of roughly 55–70%, one of the strongest annual gains in decades. Silver, long considered the “lesser metal,” outpaced gold in percentage terms, climbing around 130–140% to near $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025.
Once overshadowed by modern financial assets like currencies, bonds and real estate, precious metals reclaimed their role as safe-haven investments in a year marked by escalating trade disputes, central banks reducing their reliance on the US dollar and ongoing political tensions. This week, gold rose as much as 2.4% and silver gained 3.4% after US-Venezuela tensions flared, following reports that the US Navy attempted to seize a third oil tanker linked to Venezuela.
While gold’s price does not directly depend on Venezuela, the crisis signals broader risks to markets. Political and security upheaval highlights potential energy disruptions, escalating sanctions and great-power friction. Investors turn to gold and silver because they are independent of any single government, do not rely on corporate earnings, carry no default risk and are difficult to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Tariffs Trigger Early Safe-Haven Demand
Gold began 2025 at elevated levels, reflecting uncertainty over inflation, interest rates and the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. In March, prices broke above $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time that year, amid fears of new and expanded US tariffs under President Donald Trump, targeting steel, aluminium and potentially broader trade measures. Markets interpreted these developments as signs of an intensifying trade war and higher inflation risk, prompting investors to buy gold. Silver responded more cautiously, showing muted gains in the early months.
April–June: Middle East Tensions Boost Gold
On 2 April, Trump announced the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, sending spot gold toward record highs above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce. Gold climbed steadily through spring and early summer, reaching peaks of $3,354 (€2,842) as geopolitical stress broadened. Renewed tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, drove safe-haven demand higher. In late June, US Air Force and Navy strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities amid the Iran–Israel conflict further accelerated the rally.
July–September: Fed Dispute and Full Tariff Rollout Strengthen Rally
A public standoff between President Trump and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over interest rates reinforced gold’s mid-year surge. Trump repeatedly criticised Powell for keeping rates high and pressed for cuts that Powell refused, stoking speculation about possible Fed leadership changes. Spot gold rose above $3,400 (€2,883) per ounce during summer, supported by monetary policy uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions. On 11 July, Trump unveiled a sweeping tariff package, largely implemented by 1 August after earlier delays, reinforcing central banks’ growing trend of increasing gold reserves for diversification. Silver continued its strong performance, hitting $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold Tops $4,000 Amid Trade, Policy and Shutdown Risks
Gold surpassed $4,000 (€3,392) per ounce in early October as investors balanced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts with persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty. By 13 October, prices exceeded $4,133 (€3,504) amid ongoing US–China trade tensions. Hopes for progress in trade talks later in October briefly pushed gold below $4,000, but the overall uptrend remained. Investors also watched for a potential US government shutdown and continued criticism of Fed policies from the Trump administration. By late November, gold was poised for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, trading around $4,210 (€3,567), while silver reached a fresh high near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Record Highs Amid Venezuela Crisis
Late December saw the most dramatic gains, with gold climbing above $4,490 per troy ounce and silver approaching $70 per ounce as investors rushed into safe havens amid reports of US military action and attempts to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could lower real yields and support bullion prices, reinforced by a weakening US dollar.
