France’s mounting political crisis and rising debt have prompted Fitch Ratings to downgrade the country’s credit score from AA- to A+, intensifying pressure on President Emmanuel Macron and newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu.
The US-based agency cited political instability, repeated government collapses since the 2024 snap elections, and doubts over France’s ability to rein in ballooning public finances. Fitch warned that debt will climb from 113.2% of GDP in 2024 to 121% by 2027, with no clear sign of stabilisation. It also predicted France would miss its long-stated target of reducing its public deficit below 3% of GDP until at least 2029.
The downgrade follows the ousting of former Prime Minister François Bayrou, who lost a confidence vote over his controversial budget plans that included slashing two public holidays. Fitch said the political impasse is unlikely to ease before the 2027 presidential election, limiting any prospects for fiscal consolidation.
France’s Finance Minister, Eric Lombard, acknowledged Fitch’s decision but stressed the “solidity” of the economy, pointing to ongoing consultations for a new budget. Economists noted that France still has strengths—such as a diversified economy, higher demographic growth than neighbors, strong household savings, and resilient businesses—but warned that political paralysis and deficits among the highest in the EU threaten stability.
Despite being the third most indebted eurozone country after Greece and Italy, France currently benefits from low inflation and stable unemployment at 7.5%. INSEE, the national statistics office, forecasts modest 0.8% GDP growth in 2025, while Fitch sees domestic demand as a potential driver of recovery, even as US tariffs on EU exports weigh on trade.
By comparison, Germany and the Netherlands remain the eurozone’s highest-rated economies, while Italy continues to lag but with a more positive ratings outlook than France. Rival agency S&P Global is expected to deliver its own update on France’s rating in November.
